What about the bonds?

I've been looking for the Treasuries or the Bunds to have sensibility about the market bonds in the last years… but what about invest in them?

They have to much notional for my account so I must look in the ETF spectrum. The two ones more famous and liquids about long term bonds in the US are:

-         (TLT) for the long side

-         (TBT) for the double-short side.

My opinion about that market is that low interest rates for some years is what the market discounts. But there are others topics that can affect hard them:

-         The demand for no-risk assets. That has made possible a negative return for short term Germany notes. If there are a flight to non-risk assets can go on in an up path with shame yields.

-         Where in a deflation environment or in an inflation one??? For me the main forces goes to the deflation side, but the FED and ECB measures can lead to bit of inflation because they let the USA and European governments to spend more than should be ok (no print theories in this blog!!!)

-         What about the growth? If the world can recover the central banks will be able to sell their bond purchases and must raise interest rates. It isn't the most probably scenario for me but keep in mind.

I'm not positioned for now. But for me the bonds can go up if the stock market starts to reflect the poor economy perspectives. I don't think that concerns about debt sustainability can be a main driver for the two principal bond markets. The debt of some European countries will be explained in another post.